Novel predictors of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Chinese children with Kawasaki disease.

BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive scoring system to identify intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in children with Kawasaki disease, to implement additional therapies early in the course of their illness and prevent coronary artery lesions. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of children with Kawasaki disease treated within 10 days of fever onset. To identify independent predictors of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, multivariable logistic regression models were constructed using variables selected by univariable analysis. The independent predictors were combined into a new scoring system and compared with 2 existing systems. The discriminatory capacity of the scoring system was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS By logistic regression analysis, polymorphous exanthema, changes around the anus, days of illness at initial treatment, percentage of neutrophils, C-reactive protein levels, albumin levels, and total bilirubin proved to be independent predictors of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance. The new scoring system gave an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.672. In this scoring system, 2 risk strata were identified: low risk, with scores of 0-3, and high risk, with scores of ≥4. The sensitivity was 54.1% and the specificity was 71.2%. CONCLUSIONS The new scoring system had a higher specificity and sensitivity for Chinese children, compared with the Kobayashi scoring system and the Egami scoring system, but, unfortunately, the new scoring system was not good enough to be widely used because of its low sensitivity.